China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice calling for a reduction in soybean meal use in livestock feed to secure food supplies amid uncertain external supply. Muyuan Foods and New Hope Liuhe said they cut soymeal inclusion to 6.9% and 10.7% of compound feed respectively in 2021.
A government-backed push to lower soymeal inclusion rates reduces China's structural demand for soybeans and meal imports, which is bearish for global soy complex prices over time.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.