
Argentina's new government raised export taxes on soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to 30%, and on other agricultural products to 9%, effective Dec. 14.
A week later it gained emergency authority to add three more points on soy products and six on other goods. USDA's attaché in Buenos Aires said the aim is to raise revenue, and 2019-20 soybean output is still pegged at 53 million tonnes.
Higher export taxes cut Argentine farm-gate returns and can reduce export competitiveness of soymeal and soyoil, supporting world meal and oil prices. Uncertainty over whether earlier sales get the old rate adds to trade friction.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.