
U.S. soybean oil was trading at a US$150 per tonne premium over South American oil, up from US$20 in April. USDA data show U.S. domestic demand absorbs 93 percent of its output, driven by a 28 percent rise in industrial use including biodiesel, while Brazilian domestic demand is falling after a biodiesel blend cut.
Strong U.S. biofuel-driven demand for soyoil supports canola seed prices, which track soyoil, while weaker Brazilian biodiesel use reduces price pressure in South America.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.