
U.S. soybean futures fell to a two-week low on September 28 as harvest advanced and traders positioned ahead of USDA small grains and quarterly stocks reports. Soyoil slid after the EPA proposed reducing 2018 biodiesel blending requirements under the renewable fuel standard.
Harvest pressure and favorable weather weigh on soybean and corn prices, while the proposed biodiesel cut reduces soyoil demand, which can lower crush margins and soybean meal output expectations.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.