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Fastmarkets outlines how a Harris or Trump presidential win could reshape US renewable fuels and feedstocks policy ahead of the November 2024 election. Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 20% tariff on other imports, while experts expect policy deadlines to be delayed either way.
Cheaper imported used cooking oil and tallow have already weighed on US biodiesel feedstock prices.
Uncertainty over biofuel policy and possible China trade tensions could shift demand for soyoil and other feedstocks and pressure soybean prices.
fastmarkets.comAmanda Luhavalja, Bob Lane, Wendy Dulaney, Alexandra Chapman, the Fastmarkets teamNov 4, 2024After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, PALMOIL moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
