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Fastmarkets previewed 2025 US biofuel policy uncertainty, including pending import tariffs on used cooking oil, the shift from the Blenders Tax Credit to the 45Z credit, and delayed guidance. Experts expect vegetable oil prices to be volatile, with the outcome deciding whether bean oil trades below 40 cents or near 50 cents.
Unresolved tariff and tax credit rules keep biofuel feedstock demand uncertain, making soybean oil prices sensitive to policy headlines.
fastmarkets.comAmanda Luhavalja, Bob Lane, Wendy Dulaney, Alexandra ChapmanJan 6, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
