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Aegis Market Insights says the value of the new 45Z clean fuel tax credit remains unclear, which is stalling renewable fuel investment. Credit value for low carbon-intensity feedstocks could fall to about $0.39 per gallon, with no credit for soybean and canola oil.
Producers are cutting back feedstock purchases as the US prepares for a record soybean harvest.
Lower credit values for soyoil and canola oil reduce biofuel feedstock demand just as a record crop is expected, pressuring soybean oil prices.
aegis-hedging.comNov 4, 2024After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
