
The American Farm Bureau Federation analyzed the final RFS rule for 2023 to 2025 and found the increases short of expectations. The rule sets RVO targets and percentage standards and modifies the program.
Lower-than-expected renewable volume obligations reduce expected biomass-based diesel demand for soybean oil and canola oil. That points to softer vegetable oil prices and farm income.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.