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NOPA welcomed stronger 2025 volumes in the final RFS rule but said 2023 and 2024 volumes show no meaningful increase. The group cited more than $5 billion in oilseed crushing investments that are expected to lift soybean crush capacity over 30% by 2026.
Large crush expansion means more soybean meal and oil supply, while the weak near-term biofuel mandates limit oil demand. The combination is bearish for soybean oil prices.
nopa.orgJud AshmanJun 21, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
