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The EPA has issued three RFS actions since June 2025: proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations, a rulemaking on small refinery exemptions for 2018-2024, and a reallocation framework for those exemptions published in September. The authors argue that together these could significantly expand domestic biomass-based diesel production.
Higher mandated biomass-based diesel volumes would pull more soybean oil, tallow and other feedstocks into biofuel use, supporting oil prices and reducing oil available for feed-related uses such as soybean meal crush economics.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoOct 29, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
