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Hubbs and Irwin's farmdoc daily analysis, dated Nov. 24, 2025, projects that revised EPA RVOs, tighter small refinery exemptions and mandatory reallocation will raise 2026-2027 biomass-based diesel production and feedstock use.
They find the market impact is heavily backloaded to 2027.
The increase in feedstock demand is concentrated in 2027, so soybean oil prices may see the strongest support later rather than in the near term.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoNov 24, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
