
The EPA published a notice on January 19, 2021 requesting comment on petitions seeking waivers of 2019 and 2020 Renewable Fuel Standard obligations. Petitioners, including small refineries, argue that economic harm warrants the agency using its general waiver authority.
Granting waivers would reduce biofuel blending obligations and weaken demand for soybean oil and corn ethanol feedstocks, which is bearish for soy oil prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.