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US soybean futures fell to their lowest in nearly two months and corn hit a near one-month low on Friday, with soyoil down more than 5%. Reports said the EPA will recommend lowering federal biofuel blending mandates for 2021 below 2020 levels, while boosting the 2022 mandates above recent years.
Wheat also fell, with CBOT December down about 14 cents.
Lower biofuel blending mandates reduce demand for soyoil and corn used in ethanol, which is a major shift for these markets. The expected cut points to bearish pressure on soyoil and corn, though the stronger 2022 outlook limits the downside.
checkout.ieDonna AhernAug 23, 2021
grainews.caJulie Ingwersen, GFM Network NewsAug 20, 2021After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports that the EPA will recommend cutting 2021 biofuel blending mandates below 2020 levels cut expected soyoil demand from biodiesel and renewable diesel, directly driving the >5% drop.
Reports that the EPA will recommend lowering 2021 biofuel blending mandates triggered a sharp soyoil selloff of more than 5%, since biofuel demand is a major driver of soybean oil.
Soy futures hit a two-month low on Aug 20 amid macro fears and biofuel mandate worries (soyoil down >5%), though it falls just after the 5-day window ending Aug 19, it signals the same biofuel-demand and risk-off selling pressure.
