
USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson said Market Facilitation Program payments may fall short of the $9.6 billion maximum, since some producers will not apply and others will hit the $125,000 payment limit. Payments totaled $7.06 billion before the February 14 application deadline, with soybeans receiving the largest share at $1.65 per bushel.
Smaller-than-expected trade aid reduces the income cushion for US soybean growers, which may slightly pressure planting and marketing decisions for soy and related meal supplies.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.