Nymex Overview: Oil, Refined Products Climb on Middle East Supply Concerns -- OPIS

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026WTI climbs above $101.00 on Middle East supply risks-2.3%
• Oct 3, 2024Oil jumps over $3 a barrel as Middle East conflict stokes supply worry | Reuters+4.4%
• Apr 26, 2024Oil settles higher on supply concerns in the Mideast, economic woes subdue gains | Reuters-5.2%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-2.1%
• Jun 16, 2022Oil rebounds as new Iran sanctions fuel more supply concerns-8.7%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026WTI climbs above $101.00 on Middle East supply risks-2.4%
• Jul 30, 2026Diesel Prices Climb Over Middle East Conflict and Refinery Attacks - WSJ-13.4%
• Oct 3, 2024Oil jumps over $3 a barrel as Middle East conflict stokes supply worry | Reuters+4.4%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil settles over $100 as Houthi attacks intensify Middle East supply risks | Reuters+0.7%
• Dec 27, 2023Diesel Prices Rebound After 8-Week Decline on Supply Concerns-1.8%

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Oct 3, 2024Malaysian Palm Oil Prices Climb Due To Middle East Tensions+0.1%
• Aug 29, 2026China's Palm, Soybean, and Rapeseed Oil Futures Rise; Crude Up Over 2% on Middle East Tensions | Gate News+4.8%
• Feb 23, 2022Palm hits all-time high on supply concerns due to Ukraine crisis - Markets - Business Recorder+3.8%
• Apr 2, 2026HLIB Research: Middle East tensions to lift near-term palm oil prices+1.8%
• Oct 4, 2024Palm surges on Middle East conflict, records highest weekly gain in 16 months - Markets - Business Recorder-0.2%