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USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Argentina's 2023-24 soybean output at 50.5 million tonnes, up from 20.5 million in 2022-23, after timely rains ended a severe drought. The agency also projects a crush of 40 million tonnes and exports of 6 million tonnes, and raised planted area to 17.2 million hectares.
A recovery to 50.5 million tonnes adds large export supply to the world soybean and meal market, which is bearish for soy complex prices. Higher crush also means more meal and oil available for export.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyJan 15, 2024After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
