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USDA's May 30 GAIN report forecasts Argentina's 2018-19 soybean production rebounding to 57.5 million tonnes from a 30% drought-driven drop in 2017-18. Crush is forecast at 43 million tonnes and exports at 7.3 million tonnes, up from 3.5 million a year earlier.
Argentina's 2017-18 ending stocks are seen falling 40% to 10.9 million tonnes after a record stock drawdown.
A larger Argentine crop returns supply to the global soybean complex, easing the tight crush margins and export demand that drove soybean meal and oil prices higher. The rebound is bearish for soybeans and soybean products, though the record drawdown keeps near-term supplies tight.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyMay 31, 2018After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
