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A USDA FAS report projects Argentina's 2024-25 soybean output at 52 million tonnes, up from 49.5 million last harvest, with crush expected to rise slightly to 42 million tonnes. Farmers are shifting acreage from corn to soy due to corn stunt concerns, low prices and lower soy production costs.
Dry conditions, high temperatures and a shortage of high-grade seed could hold yields below potential.
A larger Argentine soybean crop adds export supply for soybeans, meal and oil, which is mildly bearish for soy complex prices, while weather and seed risks could offset that. Shifts away from corn may tighten corn supply later in the cycle.
world-grain.comSusan ReidyNov 4, 2024After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
