
A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report forecasts Argentina's 2020-21 wheat output falling 1 million tonnes to 20 million, and corn output falling 2.4 million to 47.6 million, due to dry weather and a shift toward soybeans. Producers remain worried about possible wheat and corn export tax increases.
Smaller Argentine wheat and corn crops tighten exportable supplies in the 2020-21 year, supporting world wheat and corn prices, while a possible export tax hike could further disrupt flows.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.