
The USDA FAS annual report projects EU total grain production at about 277 million tonnes in 2026-27, down from 288.8 million in 2025-26, with planted area slightly reduced. High fertilizer and fuel costs, linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the EU CBAM, are weighing on input decisions.
A roughly 4% drop in EU grain output and reduced fertilizer use could lift European feed grain import demand and support global grain prices, with the risk of a larger drop in 2027-28.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.