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The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects Australia's 2026/27 wheat production at 29 million tonnes, down from an estimated 36 million in 2025/26. The decline reflects a 4.8% cut in harvested area, mainly from dry conditions in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, and yields of 2.46 t/ha, below last season's 2.9 t/ha.
Wheat exports are also projected to fall.
A roughly 20% drop in Australian output removes a major exporter's supply from world wheat markets and supports prices, especially as El Niño adds downside risk to the crop.
world-grain.comJohn ReidyApr 29, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
