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A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report projects Australian wheat output at 31 million tonnes for 2025/26, down from 34.1 million, and barley at 12.5 million tonnes, down from 13.3 million. Both remain well above their 10-year averages, while dry conditions persist in South Australia and western Victoria.
Wheat exports are forecast at 23 million tonnes, down 3 million.
Lower projected exports from a top wheat exporter tighten global supply, supporting wheat and barley prices. Output still being well above average limits the upside, so the move is likely moderate.
ukragroconsult.comApr 30, 2025
world-grain.comJohn ReidyApr 29, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
