ABARES cut its 2019-20 Australian wheat export forecast by nearly 18% to 11.7 Mt from 14.2 Mt in March, as drought continues. Wheat is being imported for the first time in over a decade, and production is expected to rise about 22% to around 21 Mt.
Lower Australian export availability tightens supply in Asian import markets and supports world wheat prices, while imports signal domestic feed and milling shortfalls.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.