
Timely February rainfall stabilized Argentina's soybean crop after a dry January, and the FAS projects the 2025-26 crop at 48 million tonnes, a 5% drop from 51.1 million in 2024-25. The FAS cut Argentina's soybean exports by 500,000 tonnes on expected lower Chinese purchases and lowered imports to 7 million tonnes, while leaving the crush estimate at 43 million tonnes.
A smaller Argentine export supply and softer China demand weigh on soybean and meal export flows, though the rain reduces the risk of a deeper crop loss. Higher domestic crush supports meal availability in the region.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.