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China's soybean production is expected to slip to 20.1 million tonnes in 2026-27, yet it continues buying US soybeans under the Busan agreement. Its 10% retaliatory tariff has pushed commercial buyers toward Brazil, which shipped record volumes in June-August.
Record Brazilian shipments to China and the tariff gap cap US export pricing, while tightening Brazilian supplies could lift South American soybean prices.
world-grain.comSusan ReidySep 9, 2026After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
