
Timely February rainfall helped stabilize Argentina's soybean crop after a dry January, and the FAS kept its 48 million-tonne forecast for 2025/26. Argentina's soybean export forecast was cut by 500,000 tonnes on lower China shipments, and imports were lowered to 7 million tonnes.
Lower Argentine export availability and reduced China demand modestly tighten the balance for soybean and meal exports, while higher domestic crush supports local meal supply. The rain limits the downside to the crop.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.