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The USDA's October 4 GAIN report cut Argentina's 2019-20 soybean export forecast by 36% to 8 million tonnes, down 4.5 million from April. It also forecast soybean production at 53 million tonnes and crush at 44 million tonnes, up 3 million from April, on stronger demand for meal and oil.
Lower export availability from the third-largest soybean producer is supportive for soybeans, but a larger domestic crush shifts supply toward meal and oil. The net effect is more weight on soybean prices than on meal.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyOct 8, 2019After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
