
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 soybean crop estimate to 51.5 million tons and its 2026/27 wheat estimate to 20 million tons. Soybean harvest reached 92% by June 3, with an average yield of 3.2 tons per hectare, and the corn crop forecast was held at a record 68 million tons.
A larger Argentine soybean and wheat crop adds exportable supply to world markets, which is bearish for soybean, meal and wheat prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.