
Rosario cut its 2026/27 Argentine soybean harvest estimate by 200,000 tons to 47.8 million tons, citing weaker margins versus corn. It raised its corn forecast to 67.5-70.5 million tons and its wheat estimate by 2.4% to 21 million tons.
A smaller soybean crop with acreage shifting to corn tightens soymeal and soyoil export supply while adding corn availability. The net effect is mildly supportive for soy products and bearish for corn.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.