◂ Event Timeline

Oct 20, 2025REPORTAustralia

Australia’s wheat production outlook improves as harvest begins

Reuters polling of analysts found Australia's wheat crop estimate raised to a median of 35.7 million tonnes, the third-biggest on record. Barley estimates rose to a record 15 million tonnes, while canola was little changed at 6.5 million tonnes.

WHY IT MATTERS

Larger Australian wheat and barley output adds to abundant global supply that has pushed Chicago prices to five-year lows, weighing on export prices.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▼Barley▼Canola Meal◆

SOURCE
agcanada.comAGCanadaOct 20, 2025

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.5%5d +0.7%20d -2.8%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Aug 2, 2024Precipitation improved the prospects for the wheat harvest in Australia+4.8%
Jan 24, 2025Australia Wheat Industry Sees Record Production Boom+3.9%
Dec 1, 2025Australia raises wheat harvest estimate by nearly two million tonnes - AgCanada+1.9%
Dec 3, 2024Australia raises wheat production forecast by 60,000 tons+1.1%
Sep 3, 2024Australia raises wheat production forecast by 2.7 mln tons+1.6%

Barley▼bearish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Canola Meal◆neutral

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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