
Reuters reports Australia raised its 2024/25 wheat harvest estimate by 60,000t to 31.9 million tons, with the barley estimate cut by about 500,000t and canola raised by 100,000t. The report notes that prices are near four-year lows and that the larger crop will add global supply.
A bigger Australian wheat crop adds to export supply when world prices are already weak, pressuring wheat values. The lower barley forecast offers only modest support for feed barley.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.