
ABARES raised Australia's 2024/25 wheat estimate by about 2.2 million tonnes to 34.1 million, after barley and canola were also lifted. The agency expects 2025/26 wheat output to fall but stay above the long-term average.
Analysts had already raised their own estimates by 1 to 3 million tonnes.
The larger harvest adds supply to world wheat and barley markets and exerts downward pressure on prices. Feed buyers should see better availability of Australian grain.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.