
Australia's government raised its wheat production forecast by 2.7 million tonnes to 31.8 million tonnes after rains in key growing regions. Barley was raised by about 700,000 tonnes to 12.2 million tonnes, and canola by 100,000 tonnes to 5.5 million tonnes.
Australia is the third-largest wheat exporter, so a bigger crop adds to global supply when prices are already near four-year lows, which is bearish for wheat and barley.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.