Farmonaut reports the USDA FAS forecast of Australia's 2024-25 wheat crop at 32 million tonnes, 21% above the decade average, despite insufficient rainfall in southern regions. It also notes expected export growth and attributes the output to improved farming practices and favorable conditions in the north.
A large Australian wheat crop and higher exports add global supply, which is bearish for wheat and feed grain prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.