ABARES estimates Australian wheat production rose 45% to a record 35.1 million tonnes in 2016-17. Total winter crop output rose 49% to 58.9Mt after a 12% upward revision from December, with yields above expectations in most regions.
Dry, warm conditions in Queensland and northern NSW cut summer crop prospects.
A record Australian wheat crop expands export supply, which tends to weigh on world wheat prices. The shortfall in summer crops is limited to dryland production in the north-east.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.