◂ Event Timeline

Sep 1, 2026REPORTAustralia

Australia’s winter crop production revised up

ABARES forecasts Australia's winter crop at 61 million tonnes for 2026-27, down 12% from 2025-26 but revised up 12% from the June forecast. Wheat is seen down 17% to 29.9 million tonnes, barley down 3% and canola down 5%.

WHY IT MATTERS

The upward revision from June adds Australian supply to the export market, which is a bearish factor for wheat, barley and canola prices relative to the earlier outlook.

AFFECTSWHEAT▼BARLEY▼CANMEAL◆

SOURCE
world-grain.comJohn ReidySep 1, 2026

Price reaction & history

WHEAT▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.2%5d +1.0%20d +2.6%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Mar 2, 2026Australia’s winter crop production revised higher | World Grain+1.6%
Jun 10, 2020Australia winter crop production expected to increase | 2020-06-10 | World Grain-1.1%
Feb 16, 2021Australia’s winter crop production estimated to increase 89% | 2021-02-16 | World Grain+1.3%
Mar 1, 2022Australia record grain crop revised even higher | World Grain+10.5%
Nov 29, 2021Record year for Australian winter crop production: ABARES - Grain Central-1.1%

BARLEY▼bearish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

CANMEAL◆neutral

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

WHEAT · GP ▸

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BARLEY · GP ▸

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