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Feb 16, 2021REPORTAustralia

Australia’s winter crop production estimated to increase 89%

ABARES' February report forecast Australia's 2020-21 winter crop at 55.2 million tonnes, up 89% and the second largest on record. Wheat is put at 33.3Mt, barley at 13.1Mt and canola at 4.1Mt.

Summer crop output is forecast at 3.3Mt.

WHY IT MATTERS

Larger Australian winter grain and canola output increases export supply, which pressures world wheat, barley and canola meal prices. The below-average summer crop limits the size of that bearish effect on sorghum.

AFFECTSWHEAT▼BARLEY▼CANMEAL▼

SOURCE
world-grain.comHolly Demaree-SaddlerFeb 16, 2021

Price reaction & history

WHEAT▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.6%5d +1.3%20d +0.2%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Jun 10, 2020Australia winter crop production expected to increase | 2020-06-10 | World Grain-1.1%
Sep 1, 2026Australia’s winter crop production revised up | World Grain+1.0%
Mar 2, 2026Australia’s winter crop production revised higher | World Grain+1.6%
Jun 4, 2024Australian winter crop totals expected to increase 9% | World Grain+2.7%
Feb 17, 2021Australia raises wheat crop estimate to new record | 2021-02-17 | World Grain+0.8%

BARLEY▼bearish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

CANMEAL▼bearish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

WHEAT · GP ▸

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BARLEY · GP ▸

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