
ABARES raised its 2025-26 Australian winter crop estimate to 68.4 million tonnes, up 2.1 million from December and the second largest on record. Wheat was lifted to just under 36 million tonnes and barley to a record 16.3 million tonnes.
Higher Australian wheat and barley supplies increase export availability and add bearish pressure on feed grain prices in import markets.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.