ABARES raised its estimate of Australia's 2021-22 winter crop to a record 61.9 million tonnes, with record wheat at 36.3 Mt, barley at 13.7 Mt and canola at 6.4 Mt. The summer sorghum crop is projected at 2.6 Mt, the third largest on record.
A record Australian wheat crop gives importers an alternative supply while Black Sea shipments are disrupted, which is bearish for wheat and barley export prices. Larger barley and sorghum supplies add competition for feed grain buyers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.