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ABARES estimated Australia's 2020-21 wheat crop at 33.337 million tonnes, up 120% from the drought-reduced 2019-20 crop and 5% above the previous record. The USDA's prior forecast for Australian wheat was 30 million tonnes, so the March WASDE is expected to raise it.
The gap between the ABARES figure and the USDA estimate suggests upward revision to world wheat supply, which is bearish for wheat prices. Australian exporters are positioned to fill demand from China and other buyers.
world-grain.comJay SjervenFeb 17, 2021After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
