
Market participants estimate Australia's 2024/25 wheat crop at 32 to 35.5 million tons, about 2 million tons above the government's December forecast of 31.9 million. The upgrade is driven mainly by high yields in Western Australia.
Australia's wheat export forecast for the season was raised from 22 million to 24 million tons.
A larger exportable supply from Australia adds competition in Asian feed wheat markets and weighs on global wheat prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.