◂ Event Timeline

May 16, 2025REPORTEU

Strategie Grains raises EU grain harvest forecast

Strategie Grains raised its 2025/26 EU grain harvest forecast by 3.4 million tonnes to 278.6 million tonnes, 8.9% above the current season. Soft wheat is forecast at 129.8 million tonnes, up 14.7%, and barley at 52.4 million tonnes, up 5.4%.

WHY IT MATTERS

A higher EU harvest forecast adds to export competition and weighs on feed grain values. The larger barley and wheat supply reduces EU demand for imported feed ingredients.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▼Barley▼

SOURCE
ukragroconsult.comMay 16, 2025

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -4.8%20d -4.2%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Sep 19, 2019Strategy Grains raises forecasts for EU wheat harvests+2.2%
May 17, 2024Strategie Grains raises EU soft wheat crop forecast to 123.5 mln tons+19.4%
Sep 19, 2019Strategie Grains Raises EU Wheat Harvest, Export Outlook Again | ESM Magazine+2.2%
Jun 11, 2021Strategie Grains raises EU 2021/22 wheat crop, export forecasts - UkrAgroConsult+5.0%
Dec 22, 2024COCERAL forecasts an almost average EU grain harvest in+2.2%

Barley▼bearish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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