FranceAgriMer, cited as Strategy Grains, raised its EU soft wheat harvest forecast to 144.5 million tonnes from 142.9 million in August. Its export forecast rose to 25.7 million tonnes from 24.8 million.
The increases reflect good harvests in France and the UK and strong shipments from Romania and Bulgaria.
A larger EU harvest and higher export pace increase competition for wheat buyers in world markets and weigh on wheat prices. The expected stock build also signals ample supply through the 2019/20 season.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.