COCERAL's initial preview puts the 2025 EU grain harvest at around 275 million tonnes, roughly in line with the multi-year average. The estimate assumes a 2.5% rise in acreage and 3.4% higher yields, with no unusual weather events.
France is expected to rebound 14.4% from a very poor 2024.
A near-average EU crop suggests ample European grain supply in 2025, which weighs on wheat and feed grain prices and competes with imports. The estimate is preliminary and rests on assumed normal weather.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.