CONAB raised its 2025/26 Brazil grain production estimate to a record 356.3 million tonnes, 0.8% above its March projection. The soybean estimate was lifted to a record 179.2 million tonnes, and the yield estimate was adjusted up slightly.
A record Brazilian soybean and grain crop expands export supplies, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices and adds competition for corn exports.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.