
USDA's August 12 Crop Production and WASDE reports projected a record US soybean crop and the third-largest US corn crop on record, with wheat 9% above 2023 levels. Soybean futures closed at four-year lows after the data were released.
Record US soybean and large corn supplies point to lower feed grain prices and ample supply for feed buyers through the 2024/25 marketing year.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.