
USDA's first 2025-26 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook projects a record corn crop of 15.585 billion bushels on 94 million planted acres and a 181 bpa yield. Soybean production is forecast at 4.37 billion bushels on 84 million acres.
Corn ending stocks are seen at 1.965 billion bushels, a 12.9% stocks-to-use ratio, and corn exports were cut 50 million bushels to 2.4 billion.
Record corn supplies and higher stocks point to lower corn prices, while lower feed and residual costs support livestock margins.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.