
USDA's August 12, 2016 WASDE report raised balance sheets for rice, soybeans, cotton, corn and wheat, with first survey-based yields at record levels for corn (175.1 bu/ac) and soybeans (48.9 bu/ac). Markets made no major price adjustments by the Friday close, with corn and wheat slightly higher and soybeans slightly lower.
Record US corn and soybean crops point to ample supply, which weighs on prices, though the market had already priced most of the report in ahead of its release.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.