USDA's August report forecast a record U.S. soybean crop of 4.589 billion bushels on a 53.2 bu/acre yield, with planted and harvested acreage each raised by 1 million acres. New-crop soybean ending stocks were put at 560 million bushels, the highest in six years.
A record crop and higher stocks add supply pressure to soybeans and soybean meal, which is bearish for feed protein costs. Corn production also rose to a record yield, adding to ample feed grain supply.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.