
USDA forecast a 15.82 billion bushel 2025-26 corn crop on 181 bpa yield and 95.3 million planted acres, and a 4.34 billion bushel soybean crop. Wheat production was put at 1.921 billion bushels, above last year's estimate.
A large projected corn crop expands future supply and is bearish for corn, while the soybean and wheat figures add to a looser feed grain balance.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.